"Artifacts," by Scott G. Ortman

Table 13. Bayesian Estimates of Pottery Type and Attribute Proportions by Phase, Calculated From the Calibration Dataset
Period Phase Pottery Type Design Attribute Total Probability for Period Number of Rims in Calibration Dataset
Slipped, Painted SJ Red Warea Cortez B/W and Pueblo II White Painted Mancos B/W McElmo B/W Mesa Verde B/W Pueblo III White Painted Late White Painted Line Painted on Rim Ticked Rim Xs and/or Zig-Zags Painted on Rim Undecorated Rim Corrugated Exterior Exterior Band Design Thick and Thin Framing Lines Dots Between Framing Lines Mineral Paint
A.D. 1020–1060 1 .0475 .0714 .6565 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0486 .4240 .0310 .0000 .4817 .0233 .0000 .0000 .0000 .8628 2.647 81
A.D. 1060–1100 2 .0261 .0565 .6075 .0489 .0000 .0000 .2401 .3329 .0268 .0000 .6149 .0200 .0000 .0000 .0000 .7346 2.708 464
A.D. 1100–1140 3 .0077 .0532 .5934 .0933 .0000 .0200 .1663 .2614 .1163 .0000 .5835 .0289 .0000 .0161 .0000 .5288 2.469 1,030
A.D. 1140–1180 4 .0055 .0426 .5187 .1877 .0545 .0555 .0594 .2414 .1478 .0000 .5520 .0501 .0161 .0539 .0179 .5111 2.514 204
A.D. 1180–1225 5 .0000 .0000 .0573 .2947 .2403 .2604 .1369 .0336 .4517 .0272 .3675 .0169 .0433 .2125 .0511 .3343 2.528 387
A.D. 1225–1260 6 .0000 .0000 .0161 .1648 .4527 .3157 .0512 .0121 .4865 .0501 .3490 .0090 .1337 .3971 .0387 .1519 2.629 520
A.D. 1260–1280 7 .0000 .0000 .0127 .1204 .4291 .3771 .0544 .0000 .4590 .0851 .3560 .0000 .1880 .3510 .0494 .1631 2.645 1,397
NOTE: The estimates assume that a type or attribute does not appear until it constitutes 2 percent of the assemblage and does not disappear until after it falls below 1 percent.

SJ = San Juan; B/W = Black-on-white.

aThis category consists of Deadmans Black-on-red and Indeterminate Local Red Painted with slip.
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