"Artifacts," by Scott G. Ortman

Table 15. Summary of Bayesian Probability Density Analysis, Yellow Jacket Pueblo
A. Prior Probabilities (from composite probability density analysis of Yellow Jacket pottery data)
Period Architectural Block Total Site
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 3200 3300 3400
A.D. 1020–1060 .097 .104 .076 .081 .111 .118 .125 .078 .111 .092 .065 .046 .085 .044 .104 .077 .100 .094 .160 .179 .121 .043 .092
A.D. 1060–1100 .173 .135 .109 .098 .143 .147 .146 .089 .130 .112 .088 .063 .104 .074 .125 .086 .136 .137 .198 .217 .148 .064 .119
A.D. 1100–1140 .176 .151 .130 .122 .155 .161 .162 .116 .156 .122 .118 .089 .123 .108 .150 .106 .154 .150 .201 .217 .152 .076 .138
A.D. 1140–1180 .132 .138 .127 .134 .135 .145 .149 .131 .156 .126 .130 .108 .125 .128 .146 .118 .138 .136 .160 .163 .133 .083 .133
A.D. 1180–1225 .162 .169 .195 .197 .164 .162 .153 .193 .169 .195 .203 .211 .185 .228 .171 .198 .171 .175 .117 .096 .160 .208 .177
A.D. 1225–1260 .134 .156 .188 .191 .150 .138 .137 .204 .145 .182 .206 .247 .191 .220 .158 .213 .156 .161 .086 .067 .153 .275 .176
A.D. 1260–1280 .126 .147 .174 .178 .141 .130 .127 .190 .134 .172 .191 .236 .187 .197 .146 .201 .145 .148 .079 .062 .133 .251 .165
 
B. Conditional Probabilities (the probability of obtaining the observed block sample if it were deposited during the given phase)
Period Architectural Block Total Site
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 3200 3300 3400
A.D. 1020–1060 .080 .012 .008 .024 .076 .026 .075 .037 .036 .219 .128 .004 .040 .328 .194 .215 .097 .027 .094 .292 .270 .376 .020
A.D. 1060–1100 .096 .015 .007 .017 .086 .035 .082 .042 .026 .210 .123 .000 .044 .324 .192 .216 .110 .049 .118 .265 .311 .386 .022
A.D. 1100–1140 .127 .034 .024 .035 .106 .031 .105 .062 .047 .230 .156 .005 .079 .348 .229 .242 .143 .070 .125 .294 .327 .395 .047
A.D. 1140–1180 .112 .037 .046 .054 .115 .056 .128 .079 .091 .254 .170 .015 .107 .354 .245 .233 .128 .116 .169 .250 .285 .373 .061
A.D. 1180–1225 .190 .124 .123 .196 .044 .136 .105 .234 .182 .316 .281 .069 .225 .477 .272 .313 .220 .236 .134 .225 .325 .461 .195
A.D. 1225–1260 .160 .114 .107 .190 .038 .115 .083 .232 .185 .354 .301 .101 .217 .476 .248 .319 .194 .215 .105 .211 .295 .505 .185
A.D. 1260–1280 .143 .084 .140 .217 .076 .074 .074 .244 .149 .351 .286 .148 .181 .469 .228 .297 .161 .214 .087 .199 .278 .499 .147
 
C. Posterior Probabilities (the probability of sherd deposition in each block area during each phase)
Period Architectural Block Total Site
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 3200 3300 3400
A.D. 1020–1060 .059 .020 .007 .015 .111 .045 .100 .018 .038 .069 .036 .003 .023 .034 .086 .060 .062 .018 .123 .200 .108 .035 .016
A.D. 1060–1100 .127 .031 .009 .013 .161 .075 .127 .023 .032 .081 .046 .000 .031 .056 .103 .067 .096 .047 .191 .219 .153 .054 .024
A.D. 1100–1140 .170 .079 .041 .034 .215 .072 .181 .044 .069 .097 .079 .006 .066 .088 .148 .093 .142 .073 .206 .243 .166 .065 .058
A.D. 1140–1180 .112 .080 .074 .056 .203 .117 .202 .064 .134 .110 .095 .022 .090 .106 .154 .099 .114 .110 .222 .155 .126 .067 .074
A.D. 1180–1225 .233 .324 .304 .300 .095 .320 .170 .277 .289 .213 .245 .191 .282 .255 .200 .223 .241 .288 .128 .082 .173 .208 .312
A.D. 1225–1260 .164 .277 .255 .283 .074 .231 .120 .290 .251 .222 .266 .325 .280 .245 .168 .244 .195 .242 .074 .054 .150 .300 .295
A.D. 1260–1280 .136 .190 .310 .301 .141 .140 .100 .284 .188 .208 .234 .454 .228 .216 .142 .215 .150 .222 .056 .047 .123 .271 .221
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