Population Estimates

by Melissa J. Churchill

1
In this chapter, I estimate the number of people who lived at Woods Canyon Pueblo. Population size of prehistoric pueblos may be estimated on the basis of a number of different variables, including roofed area (LeBlanc 1971*1; Naroll 1962*1), number of rooms (Hill 1970*1), number of households (Lightfoot 1994*1), amount of roomblock rubble (Adler 1992*3; Schlanger 1987*1), number of human burials (Cook 1972*1), and hearth size (Ciolek-Torrello and Reid 1974*1). Because testing at Woods Canyon Pueblo was relatively limited, I have chosen to estimate population on the basis of (1) the known and inferred number of rooms and (2) the number of households believed to have been present in the village.

Population Estimates Based on the Number of Rooms

2
The remains of 21 rooms are visible on the modern ground surface at Woods Canyon Pueblo, and the remains of many more rooms are assumed to be beneath rubble mounds. I could not estimate population on the basis of total area of rubble, because rubble areas were not well defined at the site. Lipe (1995*2:1), however, estimates that there are between 120 and 220 rooms at Woods Canyon Pueblo; he bases this estimate on the number of kiva depressions and rubble concentrations observed during survey. Applying Adler's (1992*3:13) formula of 1.5 persons per surface room to this range yields a population estimate of 180 to 330 people.

3
The actual population is believed to have been lower than that estimate because not all of the rooms were occupied at the same time. I use figures established by Hill (1970*1) to infer the momentary population of Woods Canyon Pueblo, that is, the number of people who would have lived at the site at any one time. Hill (1970*1:75), using ethnographic evidence from historic pueblos, estimates that 22 percent of the rooms at an occupied Pueblo village would have been abandoned at any given time. If 22 percent of the rooms at Woods Canyon are subtracted from the total estimate, the revised number of rooms occupied at any one time is between 94 and 172. Thus, this method yields a momentary population estimate of 141 to 258 people for the village.

Population Estimates Based on Number of Households

The Concept of Household

4
The household is a fundamental social unit in many cultures (Lightfoot 1994*1:145). For the purposes of this discussion, a household is defined as a group of people who live around a common hearth (Beaglehole 1935*1:42, following Kroeber 1917*1:124) and who participate in a number of shared economic and social activities (Varien 1999*1:16).

5
A kiva suite, as defined by Bradley (1992*2:81), consists of a kiva and its associated surface rooms, and it is synonymous with a unit pueblo as defined by Prudden (1903*1). There is considerable debate about the size of the social groups that used Pueblo II and Pueblo III kiva suites. Some researchers argue that kiva suites were used by single households (e.g., Lightfoot 1994*1; Varien 1999*1); others infer that kiva suites were used by several households (e.g., Lipe 1989*1:64; Rohn 1965*1, 1971*1). In most cases, the arguments are based on the ratio of rooms to kivas. In some cliff dwellings at Mesa Verde National Park, the room-to-kiva ratio is especially high, and the kivas have been interpreted as having integrated multiple households (Rohn 1965*1, 1971*1). A low room-to-kiva ratio at tested sites in the Sand Canyon locality argues for single-household use of kiva suites (Varien 1999*1:18–19). For the purposes of this discussion, I (following Varien 1999*1) assume that a kiva suite is the architectural correlate of a single household.

6
In Lightfoot's (1994*1:147–148) summary of cross-cultural data and ethnographic accounts of historic pueblos in the Southwest, he concludes that household size remains constant over time and space. On the basis of these studies, he concludes that the size of prehistoric Pueblo households ranged from two to 12 people and averaged between five and eight people.

Households at Woods Canyon Pueblo

7
The number of households at Woods Canyon Pueblo can be estimated with confidence because kiva suites, for the most part, are the most visible architectural remains at the site. Kivas typically are marked by circular depressions or flat areas partly surrounded by rubble. A site map prepared before Crow Canyon began excavation (see Appendix A) was used as a starting point for estimating the number of kiva suites at the site. I then used what we learned from testing to refine this estimate.

8
Crow Canyon archaeologists mapped a total of 50 probable kivas, identified on the basis of indications visible on the modern ground surface (Database Map 330). We tested 11 of those and found that nine of the 11 were indeed kivas (Structures 1-S, 2-S, 3-S, 4-S, 5-S, 6-S, 7-S, 8-S, and 13-S). A tenth kiva that was buried by natural deposits and was not visible on the surface was also exposed during testing (Structure 9-S).

9
One way to estimate how many of the possible, but untested, kivas are actual kivas is to extrapolate from the success rate established during testing. Nine of 11 suspected kivas were confirmed during test excavation to be kivas. The walls of one of these (Structure 13-S), however, were actually visible before excavation began. When this kiva is excluded from consideration, only eight of 10 suspected kivas—or 80 percent—were identified as kivas during testing. Using an 80 percent success rate (or a 20 percent error rate), I estimate that 32 of the 40 suspected, but untested, kivas are in fact kivas. Adding the 10 known, tested kivas to this figure results in a revised kiva count for the entire site of 42. On the basis of that figure and an average of five to eight people per household (that is, per kiva suite) (Lightfoot 1994*1:148), the population of Woods Canyon Pueblo is estimated to have been between 210 and 336 people.

10
This estimate, however, should not be thought of as the true population, because not all of the kiva suites are believed to have been in use at the same time. The use life of masonry structures is estimated to have been about 50 years (Adler 1992*3:13, 14). With one exception (Structure 2-S), evidence of extensive remodeling was not observed in the tested kivas. Therefore, it does not appear that the residents took great measures to extend the use life of these structures. If Woods Canyon Pueblo was occupied throughout the Pueblo III period—roughly a 150-year span—each individual kiva suite would have been used for only one-third of the total occupation. Using this figure, I calculate a momentary population of between 70 and 112 people. If the entire site was depopulated by A.D. 1280 instead of A.D. 1300, this population estimate would increase slightly.

Population Growth and Decline at Woods Canyon Pueblo

11
The momentary population estimate of 70 to 112 people is a gross figure that does not account for fluctuations in population size during occupation. Two primary periods of occupation have been identified at Woods Canyon Pueblo (Table 1; also refer to "Chronology"). The first period of occupation, the early Pueblo III component, dates from A.D. 1140 to 1225 and was centered in the canyon bottom. The second period of occupation—the late Pueblo III component—dates from A.D. 1225 to 1280 and was concentrated on the rim, the east talus slope, and the upper west side. Thus, occupation started in the canyon bottom in the mid-1100s and expanded upslope in the early 1200s. As construction intensified in the 1200s on the slopes, at the base of the cliff, and on the rim, occupation of the canyon bottom waned. It is not clear from our limited testing whether the occupation of the rim complex coincided with, or slightly postdated, the occupation of the east talus slope and the upper west side. I consider both scenarios in my population estimates for the late Pueblo III occupation.

12
Population estimates for the early Pueblo III occupation are derived from the number of kiva suites in the canyon bottom. A total of 17 possible kivas are present in this part of the site, and roomblock rubble is associated with all of them that are visible on the modern ground surface. Allowing for a 20 percent error rate, I estimate the total number of kiva suites, or households, to be 14 (Table 1). Multiplying 14 households by five to eight people per household yields an estimated population in the canyon bottom of between 70 and 112 people.

13
Population estimates for the late Pueblo III occupation are derived from the number of kiva suites in the rim complex, the upper west side, and the east talus slope. There are an estimated 32 kivas in these sections of the site, and rooms, room outlines, and/or roomblock rubble are associated with all of them. The estimated number of kiva suites, or households, is 26 (32 minus 20 percent) (Table 1). These data can be used to estimate a population of between 130 and 208 people (five to eight people per household) for the rim complex, the upper west side, and the east talus slope. If these estimates are correct, the population of the village increased in the A.D. 1200s.

14
Because the occupation of the rim complex may have started slightly later than the occupation of the upper west side and east talus slope, the population toward the end of the site occupation might have been significantly less than 130 to 208. There are two confirmed kiva suites or households in the rim complex. Thus, the population estimate for the rim complex is 10 to 16 people (five to eight people per household). If the rim complex was the last part of the site to be occupied, then only a dozen or so people lived at the pueblo during the late 1200s. These data suggest that the population may have peaked by the mid-1200s, then dwindled in the late 1200s.

Summary

15
Population estimates for Woods Canyon Pueblo are based on architectural remains visible on the modern ground surface, as well as on information gathered during test excavations. A total maximum population of 180 to 330 people was derived from an estimate of the number of surface rooms at the site, and a similar estimate of 210 to 336 people was calculated from the number of households, as inferred from the number of kivas. Both estimates relied heavily on the number of likely kivas present. Although these figures suggest that the upper possible limit of population at Woods Canyon Pueblo was between 200 and 350 people, it is important to recognize that the number of people living at the site at any one time—that is, the momentary population—would have been less. Calculated on the basis of the number of rooms believed to have been occupied at any one time, the momentary population of Woods Canyon is estimated to have been between 141 and 258. Calculated on the basis of the estimated number of households and the estimated use life of a kiva suite, the momentary population is estimated to have been between 70 and 112 people. Thus, 70 to 258 people might have lived at the site at any one time.

16
Woods Canyon Pueblo was probably a village starting in the early Pueblo III period (a village is defined as a settlement containing more than 50 contemporaneous structures and typically occupied by 10 or more households [Lipe and Ortman 2000*1:92]). The physical extent of the village increased over time, as did the number of structures, suggesting an increase in population through much of the site's history. The momentary population for the early Pueblo III (A.D. 1140–1225) occupation in the canyon bottom is estimated to have been between 70 and 112 people. The population increased as occupation shifted to the east talus slope, the upper west side, and the rim complex in the 1200s. The momentary population estimate for the late Pueblo III occupation (A.D. 1225–1280) is 130 to 208 people.¹ By the late 1200s, the population may have dwindled to only 10 to 16 people living in the rim complex. The size of the village probably never exceeded approximately 250 people.

17
When did the residents leave Woods Canyon Pueblo? A case can be made for either of two scenarios. First, it is possible that most of the population left at about the same time during the late 1200s. If so, Woods Canyon Pueblo was a sizable village up until that point. Alternatively, the decline in population at the pueblo might have been more gradual, as indeed it may have been in the region as a whole (see Duff and Wilshusen [2000*1] for a discussion of the regional emigrations from the Mesa Verde region in the mid- to late 1200s), with people starting to leave as early as the mid-1200s, and only a few remaining by the late 1200s.

¹Previous population estimates for Woods Canyon Pueblo (calculated by Adler and Johnson [1996*1:262]) overestimated the number of people living at the site during the A.D. 1250–1280 time period because it was assumed that all structures at the site dated to that time period.

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